NZHPA Safety taskforce summary - #5 WEATHER


“Weather” is used here as a term to cover all aspects of the environment in which we fly – including large scale metro conditions as well as micro-scale local conditions like wind, turbulence, rotor, cloud-suck etc.

A recurring theme in accidents in any given phase of flight is a pilot’s misjudgement and/or a general lack of understanding or awareness of ‘weather’ conditions relating to their own glider, skill level, or intended flight. This is mirrored in international data which shows that misjudgement of wind strength and air movement is present in over one third of accidents.

We feel that consciously learning about ‘the weather’ generally is a good starting point, as is checking ‘the weather’ for assessing any specific flying day as that is likely to help inform what to expect of local conditions at the flying site. For advanced free flying activities such as cross-country, a greater emphasis on learning about and assessing local effects is highly recommended.

It would however be a mistake to assume that weather-related incidents are just beginner issues, as the NZ data shows incidents to be happening across all skill levels for a variety of reasons, which include:

• Not checking the forecast and/or live weather stations before flying and thus having poor awareness of overarching conditions
• Misjudging wind around terrain and being caught in lee rotor situations 
• Poor real-time situation awareness relating to conditions - either did not see weather signs or misinterpreted them (see more in humans factors section below) 
• Not understanding or misjudging thermal/wind cycles on launch
• Flying in or into weather conditions that were outside of the pilot’s skill level 
• Lack of observational skills (or capacity or motivation to observe with sufficient attention to conditions) 
• Not giving enough margin for the conditions. 

We consider that there is a general deficiency in understanding weather and weather-related conditions in free flying in NZ, especially amongst novice and intermediate rated, and occasional pilots. There will be some exceptions where pilots have done a lot of self-directed learning, but it appears that many pilots generally do not receive (and/or retain) sufficient training necessary to consistently make sound decisions related to weather. It also appears that many average pilots fail to pay sufficient deliberate and continual attention to existing and changing local weather conditions once in the air and instead can get ‘caught out’.

Recommendations 
It is clear that more in-depth weather (macro and local conditions) understanding is required for safety, comfort, confidence, and performance in free flying. 

• Recognise that the weather syllabus within PG2/INT training is a fraction of what you need to keep yourself safe in real flying environments. Additional self-directed study and formal training is essential. 
• Further develop skills for weather analysis through a combination of reading books, accessing online resources, and acquiring observation skills in the real world in real time. 
• Develop a mental model of what the forecasts are predicting and compare that to what you observe on the day. 
• Seek out schools and individuals who provide more than the basic level of understanding as your life and personal safety depend on this.